Experts see three possible scenarios

With a high degree of uncertainty looming after the four-party talks faltered on Saturday, experts of constitution say there are three possible scenarios.

First, the CA sees a happy ending with the parties finally settling their differences and promulgating a full constitution on Sunday. Second: they defer remaining contentions on federalism to be dealt by "transformed parliament" and promulgate the constitution with whatever is agreed upon so far. And third, the parties miss the deadline leading to dissolution of the CA and thus heading for a fresh mandate based on new political agreement.

In the first scenario, the parties somehow converge on any of the models discussed so far: from the six-state model floated by the minority members of the State Restructuring Commission to the 14-state model passed by the majority of the CA committee on state restructuring, or any new model agreed towards the end of the Day.

In the second scenario, the country gets a new constitution, with some unresolved issues, such as mapping, number and naming of federal provinces. The new statute replaces the Interim Constitution of 2007 and there remains an active "transformed parliament". The constitution, says former Bar President and Senior Advocate Bishwo Kant Mainali, must have a "special provision" inserted – in order to give the "transformed parliament" a constitutional legitimacy and authority to sort out the remaining issues of federalism. The new agreements on federalism will be institutionalised through constitutional amendments.

The special provision, however, will also have to fix the timeframe and the basis for the transformed parliament to settle the remaining differences along with fixing the process and deadline to hold the general elections. Any constitutional body, such as the proposed Central Federal Commission assigned to complete the remaining tasks, would be under the supervision and control of the transformed parliament, which will comprise the same lawmakers, says Senior Advocate Radheshyam Adhikari.  

In the third, or the worst case scenario, the parties will continue to stick to their guns and miss the May 27 deadline. In that case CA automatically dissolves but the Interim Constitution continues to govern, says Adhikari. The Article 82, however, would allow the defunct assembly to take an interim call on future course, including to go for a fresh mandate. "In this case, the positive aspect would be the country will get a new assembly with new mandate that will decide whether or not to go for ethnicity-based federalism," says Mainali.

The caretaker government will remain for sometime but based on the "doctrine of necessity," the parties will forge a new political agreement to form a government through a presidential order. Such a government could hold CA elections, argues Adhikari. Till a new CA is constituted, the statue drafting process will stop.

Differences over status of PM in case of fiasco

There are, however, differences among the experts on the status of the prime minister and the president after the CA is dissolved as in third scenario.

In an urgent call, Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai on Saturday night consulted with some legal experts.

Advocate Raman Shrestha suggested that next way is to go for fresh CA polls as per the first of three alternatives provided by the Supreme Court directive. The second alternative suggested by SC was to go for referendum on unresolved issues of constitution.  The third option, Shrestha said, was "too vague" as it just says parties could go for any constitutionally permissible alternative.

Advocate Ramnarayan Bidari, however, told the PM that the institution of president would not exist after the CA has been dissolved but the institution of prime minister would be there. But Advocate Adhikari disagrees. "If the CA is dissolved, all the institutions formed in line with the Interim Constitution will continue to exist, though the PM would be rendered to a caretaker status," said Adhikari.

 Source ekantipur

No statute today will leave political, constitutional void

Frustrated by the top leaders´ failure to make any headway in resolving the disputes in constitution writing, Constituent Assembly (CA) Chairman Subas Nembang cautioned top leaders of major political parties that the failure to promulgate the new constitution by Sunday will leave a political as well as constitutional void.

At a meeting held at the prime minister´s office in Baluwatar, Nembang urged the leaders to forge consensus or come up with an alternative in the remaining hours so as to avoid the looming crisis. 

“Failure to promulgate the new constitution will result in a political void because the interim constitution does not envision CA´s failure to promulgate the new constitution. I alerted the leaders about the impending consequences," Nembang told Republica.

The government will be the direct victim if the CA is dissolved without promulgating the new constitution because the government will turn into a caretaker one immediately after the CA and parliament cease to exist.

As per the interim constitution, the role of CA will come to an end once it promulgates the new constitution but will continue to exist as the legislature-parliament until an elected parliament replaces it. But the legislature-parliament will not be given continuity if the CA fails to promulgate the new statute.

Similarly, the status of president will also be questioned because the he was also elected from the same parliament. On the president´s term of office, Article 36C of the interim constitution states: the president shall continue in office until the new constitution is promulgated by the CA.

Also, questions will be raised if the president exercises executive powers as the constitution clearly defines the president as the constitutional head of the state.
"I had to alert the leaders because questions will definitely be raised from various quarters on the legitimacy of the government, head of state and other institutions as well," Nembang said. 
The government and international donors have spent billions of rupees for constitution making. He said people will seek the details and clarifications.

Nembang told the leaders the new constitution would stoke dissatisfaction among various communities but that would be manageable. "But the situation without a constitution will definitely be unmanageable," he explained. He said there will be anarchy in the society because various groups have already started fortifying their camps with the intent to fish in troubled waters in case of CA´s failure.

Nembang argued that the institutions whose legitimacy would be questioned will not be able to contain confrontation between various groups.

Leaders, including UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, responding to Nembang´s concerns said they realize the gravity of the situation. But, there was no concrete progress toward bringing the new constitution until late Saturday night.


Source myrepublica

Security forces put on high alert

 The three security agencies under the Home Ministry have been put on high alert to prevent possible violence in case Constituent Assembly (CA) is dissolved. 

One third of police in the Valley have been mobilized in the area around the CA premises in Baneshwar assessing the next 24 hours to be critical. Reserve and strike forces have also been kept on alert to assist them if required. 

Nepal Police, Armed Police Force (APF) and Central Investigation Department under the Home Ministry have been jointly mobilized with a Nepal Army representative coordinating their plans. The security agencies have received information that a few groups were prepared to protest, believing an incomplete constitution would be drafted, if it is drafted at all, while others were active to incite communal violence by capitalizing on these protests. 

A joint security command post will be formed at the Home Ministry with ministry officials, representatives of the army and all three bodies under the ministry. Similar command posts will also be in place in all the districts. Such command post in the Valley will be kept at the Metropolitan Police Commissioner´s Office in Ranipokhari, Kathmandu. The command posts including Nepal Army representatives will mobilize commanders on the field to assess the prevailing security situation. 

Separate command posts will also be in place at the Nepal Police and APF headquarters. "A matured security plan has been implemented considering analysis of all possible security challenges," Nepal Police Spokesperson DIG Binod Singh said. 

The Home Ministry has been implementing security strategy since mid-April and has been adjusting the strategy based on 15-day security analysis. Security sources said the regular weekly meeting of the central security committee held on Friday was also being held on Monday in the last couple of weeks. 

Three different plans
The security agencies have made three different plans anticipating three different eventualities on Sunday, according to security sources. Plan A includes handling the challenges that may result if the constitution is drafted. Plan B deals with the challenges that may arise immediately after dissolution of the CA and Plan C with normal situation.

The security officers do not anticipate big security threats if the constitution is drafted reasoning that a few unsatisfied groups taking to streets would not pose serious security challenges. There may be attempts to flare the situation through infiltrations in the protests but the officers do not see that as a big threat. 

They expect the most serious challenge if the constitution is not drafted. They expect that groups may try to fuel violence capitalizing on the uncertainty and political vacuum after CA dissolution. "The current ethnic division will add direct challenges if the constitution is not drafted," a DIG with Nepal Police said. 

The officers fear that there may also be confusion about official orders if dispute over the legitimacy of the existing government continued after the CA dissolution. A senior security officer claimed that they were mentally prepared on what to do if the president and prime minister emerged as parallel power centers in such a scenario. 

Nepal Army has been carrying out an advisory role in the present scenario as a coordinator. The army intelligence doesn´t expect the situation to deteriorate to the extent that requires clamping curfew or declaration of state of emergency. Their role will change in case of emergency or curfew.

Source myrepublica

Baidya's new idea to save parliament

With uncertainty looming over the new constitution as of late Saturday evening, the Mohan Baidya faction of the Maoist party has floated a proposal to amend Article 82 of the Interim Constitution so as to at least save parliament even if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is dissolved. 

Maoist Vice-chairman Mohan Baidya and leader Dev Gurung floated the proposal during their meeting with Nepali Congress (NC) President Sushil Koirala on Saturday, according to a NC leader privy to the meeting. [break}

The leader said that the constitutional provision can be amended in such a way that the dissolved CA will continue to function as a legislature-parliament to complete the unfinished work of constitution making and also own whatever work has been completed so far by the CA. 

The existing provisions only provide that the work of the Constituent Assembly ends from the day of commencement of the costitution passed by the CA, and until the election of the legislature as set forth in the new constitution the business and proceedings of parliament shall be as set forth in the said new constitution.

The parliament floated by the Baidya faction will be different from a transformed one that has been discussed among parties, according to the NC leader. The transformed parliament could come into existence only if a draft of the constitution was promulgated, he said. 

Gurung even confirmed that amendment of Article 82 has been discussed. "At some meeting, the amendment of Article 82 has surfaced," Gurung said when asked about their proposal. 

The NC leader told Republica that the existing bill registered at the Constituent Assembly to amend Article 64 -- which relates to extending the term of the CA-- can be used to amend Article 82. For that purpose an amendment to the bill to amend Article 64 is required to be registered at parliament. 

"If all the parties agree on this alternative, the amendment of Article 82 as proposed by the Baidya faction is technically possible," said a source at the CA familiar with procedural matters. 

No-confidence move against PM 

Meanwhile, the NC, CPN-UML and the Mohan Baidya faction have also started a move to register a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai at parliament. Leaders said the parties may register the motion at parliament with the signatures of a majority of parliament members prior to the dissolution of the CA in case consensus eludes parties on the contentious issues of constitution making. 

"Though such a move will not bear fruit following dissolution of the CA, it will create political and moral pressure on the prime minister to step down in the aftermath of CA dissolution. We will submit the signatures to the president before the CA is dissolved," said another NC leader, seeking anonymity. 

According to NC leaders, their party on Saturday collected the signatures of its lawmakers for the purpose.


Source myrepublica

Federalism proves hard nut to crack

With just a day left for the Constituent Assembly (CA) term to expire, the three major political parties and the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) remained busy till late Saturday night in their bid to thrash out thorny issues in constitution writing. 

A meeting of the UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress and CPN-UML and UDMF that ended inconclusively earlier in the day resumed for negotiations at the prime minister’s official residence in Baluwatar late Saturday evening. The meeting was still under way as Republica went to the press at 11 pm. The leaders have agreed to make a last ditch effort at consensus Sunday morning. 

Though the major political parties appear flexible over the number of provinces, differences still persist over whether to embrace single identity-based or multicultural provinces. 

“The meeting failed to yield any result as the Maoists and UDMF did not agree to our proposal to embrace multi-language, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural provinces,” NC Vice president Ram Chandra Paudel told media persons after the meeting. 

Paudel said they proposed multi-lingual, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural provinces. “We also proposed to authorize federal commission to settle the names, number and boundary of provinces and settle the issues through an extended parliament if there is no consensus on the issues now,” he said. 

The “formal meeting” between the three major parties and UDMF hardly lasted for 45 minutes as both the Maoists and UDMF leaders walked out of the meeting. 
While the Maoist and UDMF proposed single identity-based 14 provinces, NC and UML argued that an 8-province model based on multi-lingual, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural identity would be best suited to Nepal. “We reiterated our stance that single ethnic identity based provinces would invite disaster,” said UML Vice-chairman Bamdev Gautam.
Gautam argued that would not be possible to delineate single ethnic identity-based provinces for all the 118 ethnic groups in the country. “UML and NC share a common view with regard to state restructuring,” he said ruling out any flexibility on the number of provinces.

Talking to media persons, Acting Chairman of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum- Republican (MPRF-R) Raj Kishor Yadav claimed that the meeting ended inconclusively after NC and UML turned down the 14-province model proposed by the CA thematic committee on state restructuring and 10-province model proposed by State Restructuring Commission (SRC). “We cannot surrender in the name of consensus,” he further said.

Maoist Vice-chairman Narayankaji Shrestha told media persons that NC and UML were conspiring to dissolve the CA. “Both NC and UML have rejected our proposal for single identity-based provinces though two-thirds of the CA members are in favor of such provinces,” he said chocking with emotions. “There will neither be a new constitution, nor the CA now.”


source myrepublica

Shrestha cries over current turmoil

Vice Chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha broke down and cried while speaking to media persons on Saturday.

Emerging from the four party meet, which ended inconclusively at Baluwatar, a teary-eyed Shrestha said, "Nepali Congress and CPN-UML are lobbying to dissolve the CA. The country is plunging into a void. If this situation continues, no further meeting can be held."

Source ekantipur

New Baneshwor area tense as ethnic groups stage demo

The surrounding areas of the Constituent Assembly (CA) building in New Baneshowr have become tense on Saturday afternoon, with activists from various ethnic communities staging demonstrations to press for their demand.

The demonstrations, spearheaded by Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN), come hours ahead of May 27, when the deadline for the promulgation of the new constitution by CA expires. 

Demonstrators have been shouting slogans demanding that the nine-point pact earlier reached between NEFIN and the government be implemented. They have demanded that the state be restructured based on single ethnic identity and have said a new constitution without federalism would not acceptable to them.

A large number of security personnel have been deployed at the site. Traffic movement has come to a halt due to the demonstrations. 

Also, the major political parties and  have shifted their meeting venue from CA building to the prime minister’s official residence in Baluwatar due to the ethnic communities’ demonstrations in the area. 


Source myrepublica